Despite a recent Report by the Trump administration, which suggests another thing, U.S. agricultural exports to China have yet to meet commitments made in the first phase.7 Although better than manufacturing, it was not until September that agricultural exports returned to their pre-market level (Figure 3). In September, they were only 66% of their seasonally adjusted targets. In other words, China will have to import 62% of the total agricultural commitment in October, November and December if it is to meet the 2020 target. The 86-sided agreement facilitates criminal prosecution in China against those accused of stealing trade secrets. It contains provisions to prevent Chinese government officials from applying administrative and regulatory procedures to remove the trade secrets of foreign companies and to allow such information to end up in the hands of Chinese competitors. Under the agreement, China has committed to purchase as much as $63.9 billion of U.S. covered goods by the end of 2020 compared to those basic plans for 2017. The definition of the baseline for 2017 based on Chinese import statistics implies a purchase target of $173.1 billion for 2020 (in red in panel a). The definition of the baseline for 2017 based on U.S. export statistics implies a target of $159.0 billion by 2020 (blue in panel a). In his January 2020 trade deal with China, President Donald Trump argued that his trade war with China was a success. In its self-proclaimed „historic“ agreement, China committed to purchase other U.S.
goods and services in 2020 and 2021. Trump even boasted that the deal „could be closer to $300 billion once it`s done.“ 2. On July 6, 2018, the Trump administration imposed its first tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods. China returned the favour at the same time. The two countries have imposed tariffs until September 2019, together covering more than $450 billion in bilateral trade. The January 2020 agreement applies to U.S. exports of goods and services. Because detailed data on high-frequency trade for services are not available, these commitments are not assessed here. The agreement aims to ease some U.S. economic sanctions against China, while Beijing must strengthen the purchase of U.S. agricultural products and other products. For example, Mr.
Trump cited beef, pork, poultry, seafood, rice and dairy products. All these obstacles and complications lead to political failure. Regardless of who is president, the United States must get China to liberalize its tariffs, reduce non-tariff barriers, and streamline its subsidies and other practices that distort economic incentives. In response to Trump`s trade war, China imposed additional tariffs on more than 50 percent of U.S. exports in 2018 and 2019. It is mysterious that the legal text of the first phase of the agreement did not remove, reduce or even mention the word „tariffs,“ and it did little to address the major trade problems that the United States has with China. Instead, the Trump administration has provided an excellent case study on why simple purchase commitments can`t go around. Details of the basic approach to mapping the 2020 annual targets for trade data are available in Bown (2020). Other hypotheses relate to the establishment of estimates for 15 different product categories, as the agreement provides only aggregate targets for the four sectors of manufacturing, agriculture, energy and services. The aim is to allocate product-level targets on the basis of the share of this product in all U.S. exports to China in 2017 of products covered by purchase obligations. See also the table below.
Read the nearly 100-face U.S.-China trade deal The monetary agreement contains China`s commitments to move away from monetar devaluations